A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically dominated, winning 27 out of 28 series. The lone exception occurred in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. In those 28 series, 20 ended in sweeps. The Florida Panthers are aiming to achieve a sweep in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings swept the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998.
Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to extend the series with a Game 4 win, history is against them. A staggering 25 of those 28 series that began 3-0 ended in no more than five games. Nevertheless, the Oilers still harbor hope and belief.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are facing a challenging season against the Panthers, currently standing at 0-5-0. In Thursday's Game 3, they showed some resilience in the third period, scoring gritty goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to narrow the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from this must-win game on home ice was their precarious position—down 4-1 entering the third period against a team with a +15 goal differential in the final frame during the playoffs.
The undoing for the Oilers came during a demoralizing 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida netted three goals. Just after tying the game at 1-1 with a Warren Foegele breakaway goal, a turnover by Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, making it 2-1 and deflating the home crowd. By 13:57, a solid forecheck from Matthew Tkachuk forced a turnover from Darnell Nurse, leading to Sam Bennett snapping in a goal for his seventh of the playoffs, making it 3-1. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 opportunity that began deep inside Edmonton’s attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Edmonton's mistakes have accumulated, but goals have not, especially from their star players. While secondary players like Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have found the net, their top scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have yet to score in the series. These five players also run the Oilers' power play, which has been ineffective against Florida's penalty kill, going 0-for-10.
Edmonton’s power play was operating at over 37%, the best in the postseason before facing the Panthers. While McDavid has managed to secure assists on three of Edmonton’s four goals in the series, he is on pace to become only the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team’s goals in the postseason, the first being Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. However, the rest of the key players have yet to make an impact in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
The Oilers' players are acknowledging their shortcomings. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," said Leon Draisaitl. He added, "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Stuart Skinner also reflected on the situation: "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil." Coach Kris Knoblauch echoed this sentiment: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
Knoblauch continued to express optimism: "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing." Skinner summed up the game: "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl concluded with a focus on the future: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."